DISRUPTION IS THE NEW NORMAL.
Multinationals are increasingly exposed to political risk and cross-border threats
due to the intricate web of global value chains that underpin the world economy.
Whether it is the fallout from Brexit, political upheavals in Brazil, a more assertive
Chinese foreign policy or the inversion of U.S. trade policy, disruption is increasingly
causing headaches for global CEOs.

Many of these disruptive developments are symptoms of geopolitical change
and globalisation fatigue. We are witnessing profound changes in the geopolitical
relevance of the world’s power centres, and the emergence of a multipolar world
order is bringing instability in its wake. Meanwhile socio-economic inequality,
societal division and environmental challenges show that globalisation in its old
guise is not the panacea for welfare.

These developments are also impacting international trade growth and policies.
The World Trade Organization (WTO) expects global trade to grow by 2.4% in 2017,
which seems positive. However, there is so much uncertainty and risk around shortterm
economic and policy developments around the world that the figure is placed
within a wide range of 1.8% to 3.6%. It is also well below the 4.7% average annual
growth rate since 1980. Recent changes to key countries’ trade policies can in part
be attributed to these global developments.

The developments point to various emerging macro trends that will likely shape
global trade policymaking in the years ahead. Weber Shandwick has identified the
following macro trends:

1. Deepening leadership gaps and competition for standards.
2. Equitability of trade terms takes centre stage.
3. Resurgence of economic nationalism.

As a result of these trends and the political risk they prompt, stakeholders across
the globe are left with unclear short- and long-term business prospects. The
growing politicisation of trade policy makes for a volatile global investment
environment. More than ever, international businesses must be aware of the
interplay between political dynamics at the regional, national and global level in
order to identify risks and opportunities in time.

This report identifies contemporary trade policy trends at global and national level;
assesses the clashing concepts in trade policymaking, before outlining a number of
scenarios and their potential impact on business; and concludes with sections on key
markets such as Japan, India, the U.S., South Africa, China, Brazil, the UK and the EU.

Email gcox@webershandwick.com for the full report.